(TORONTO) – US President Donald Trump has backed away from his threat to impose steep tariffs on Bombardier jets. The climbdown comes as his Republican Party faces a potentially devastating “blue wave” in the upcoming midterm elections, according to political analyst Eric Ham.
Ham described Trump’s reversal on the Bombardier issue as “a bit surprising.” He noted the administration had been “doubling down” on attacks against Canada.
He suggested the White House now recognises that such rhetoric has become “increasingly problematic” in key battleground states like Michigan and Maine. Republicans had hoped to capitalise on accusations of Canadian election interference there.
However, voters are frustrated by high inflation, soaring gas prices, and an unpopular war in Iran. The political landscape has shifted dramatically as a result.
Ham pointed to Kansas as a bellwether. No Democrat has been sent to Washington from the state since 1932, yet the race is now “increasingly competitive.”
It is “unclear if Republicans will actually hold that state,” he said. What was once seen as a difficult election now “looks more and more like a blue wave that could run his party out of power.”
This has forced the President into an “11th hour” acquiescence on key voter concerns.
Early voting data appears to support this trend. While overall early vote numbers are down in Florida, Democrats are leading there despite a significant Republican registration advantage.
In Georgia, record turnout is being reported, with the African-American vote up by more than 7 per cent.
North Carolina is also seeing a highly competitive race. A Democratic former governor appears poised to win a seat currently held by a retiring Republican.
Ham stated that based on early vote totals, “Democrats are going to do very well.”
When asked if the polls might be misleading, as they have been in past presidential elections, Ham acknowledged the possibility. He noted that races in Alaska, Michigan, Iowa, and Texas are all very tight, with Democratic leads often within the margin of error.
He also highlighted that President Trump has spent over a quarter of a billion US dollars (approximately £200 million) in the campaign’s final weeks to bolster Republican candidates.
Despite this spending, Ham concluded that Trump’s “latest attacks on Canada” and his perceived closeness to Russia are “deeply unpopular.”
Furthermore, he noted that the issue of “corruption” is now at the top of voters’ minds. Many Americans tie this issue directly to the President.
Ham suggested these factors could form the “closing arguments that could potentially sink President Donald Trump’s party” as voters head to the polls.
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