(LONDON, UK) – Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have left the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in a “dangerous place”, with the Kremlin strongman unable to sustain his war without destroying the very industry that funds it, according to Sir William Browder.
Browder, chief executive of Hermitage Capital, head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and author of Red Notice and Freezing Order, told the Frontline podcast that Ukraine has “figured out how to inflict real pain” on Putin over the past six months.
The pain, he said, has come through drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, oil terminals and warehouses belonging to the online retailer Wildberries.
“Those attacks have caused true real economic pain for Vladimir Putin,” Browder said, adding that Ukraine believes it has already knocked out about 50% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
“The Ukrainians have a way of fighting back to scorch his economy,” he said. “And so he is in a difficult situation because otherwise he’s stuck. And being stuck is a pretty dangerous place for him to be right now.”
Browder argued that Putin needs the war to stay in power. If he gives up, he said, Russians would blame him for everything that has happened and could remove him from office or jail him.
At the same time, Putin cannot allow a war that destroys his entire oil refining industry.
Browder said it is clear Putin turned to US President Donald Trump for help. He offered the United States diesel fuel, supposedly to ease American fuel prices, though the volumes are minuscule against US demand.
By making that offer, Browder said, Putin could then ask Trump to press Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop bombing Russian refineries.
“What does Trump get in return? He gets business deals,” Browder said. “And these aren’t business deals for the United States of America. These are business deals for people close to the Trump administration.”
He cited the sale of Lukoil’s international assets to business partners of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are also the chief negotiators of the supposed ceasefire deal.
“So it’s very simple. This has nothing to do with the midterm elections. This has to do with Putin being under pressure. And this has to do with Trump wanting to make money,” Browder said.
Browder described Putin as a leader who relies on scorched earth tactics, pointing to the bombing of Grozny during the Chechen war and Aleppo during Russia’s intervention in Syria.
“But he can’t do scorched earth in Ukraine without some counterattack,” Browder said. “Grozny, they didn’t have drones. The Syrians didn’t have drones. But the Ukrainians have drones and know how to use them.”
He said Ukrainians also have leverage because they can continue to fight back and hold the line, and they retain the financial and political support of Europe.
Trump’s leverage over Ukraine, Browder said, has shrunk sharply. Military aid, which he described as 80% to 85% of Washington’s leverage, was cut off on day one of Trump’s second term. The remainder is intelligence sharing, Starlink and the supply of weapons already paid for by European allies.
“They’re now playing with the rest of the leverage and seeing whether that’s enough to cause the Ukrainians to give up their sovereignty,” he said. “And the simple answer is it isn’t. The Ukrainians are not going to give up. They’re not going to surrender.”
Browder also said Russia is pouring “gasoline on the fire” of unrest across Europe, pointing to riots in France and other capitals as an opportunity for the far right, including Marine Le Pen, who has promised to stop supporting Ukraine.
He dismissed the term “hybrid war” as too soft, describing Russian activity as terrorism: cutting internet cables in the Baltic Sea, sending parcel bombs and flying drones into airports, often using local criminals paid in cryptocurrency.
He said NATO must adapt, but questioned whether the United States would honour Article 5 commitments if Putin triggers them.
“I don’t think NATO exists in the form that we have known it to exist,” Browder said, urging Europe and other allies to prepare to defend themselves without relying on Washington.
On sanctions, Browder said the West carved out a loophole so large, by allowing Russia to keep selling crude oil to China, India and Turkey, that it allowed Moscow to fund its war.
He said the late US Senator Lindsey Graham’s bill to penalise buyers of Russian oil became law about a month ago, but Trump issued an executive order refusing to enforce it.
“I think we can safely say that Donald Trump has saved Vladimir Putin and he’s expecting a lot of financial rewards in return,” Browder said.
Looking ahead, Browder said there will be no surrender of Ukraine. He expects Trump to continue applying pressure, including possible withdrawal of intelligence support and Starlink, which could cost more Ukrainian lives.
But he said Ukraine possesses a capability none of Russia’s previous opponents had: the ability to inflict direct pain on Putin through long-range strikes.
“It will become too painful for Putin to continue,” Browder said. “And I think we were getting there before and that’s why Putin asked Trump to intervene.”
He predicted the war would eventually wind down, not through a peace treaty but because the cost becomes unsustainable for Moscow.
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