(SUGUT, WESTERN SIBERIA) – Ukrainian drones have struck a major gas condensate facility in Western Siberia and a large oil refinery in Ryazan, resuming a campaign against the core of Russia’s war economy after a pause of several days.
The Surgut condensate stabilisation plant, Russia’s largest such facility, was hit at a distance of approximately 2,500 kilometres from Ukraine. The plant, capable of processing around 12 million tonnes of hydrocarbons annually, is a major hub for Russia’s oil and gas industry. Satellite imagery indicates the main processing unit was likely affected.
The Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia’s largest, was also struck and left burning. The facility, built in 1960, processes approximately 340,000 barrels of oil daily, accounting for around 5 percent of Russia’s total refining capacity and supplying a significant portion of Moscow’s fuel. This follows a new chart from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) which indicates that Ukraine’s refinery strikes have no correlation with diesel prices, undermining a key argument used by the US administration to discourage such attacks.
The pressure is not confined to energy infrastructure. A major Ukrainian drone attack involving some 400 drones across Russia caused significant disruption. Russian airports in the country’s most populated western regions were thrown into chaos, with airspace closures also affecting flights in Turkey and Egypt.
Ukrainian officials involved in the planning have stated that the operation to paralyse Russian airports will soon enter a more intense phase. The campaign, known as Operation M&Ms, has so far involved flooding airspace near airports with long-range drones to force closures, but a more ambitious version would see AI-controlled drones strike airport infrastructure directly.
On the frontline, Russian troops in the Sumy sector are reportedly complaining that their tactic of pouring infantry into walls of Ukrainian drones is failing. Russian military bloggers describe the fighting as “heavy and sticky,” acknowledging a positional stalemate and the skill of Ukrainian forces operating from forested areas.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian logistics along the Kharkiv border. Russia’s steel industry continues to collapse, with the Russian Steel Association now warning of looming plant closures across entire regions of the country as military demand is no longer sufficient to keep plants operating.
The situation is exacerbated by political developments in Washington. Reports indicate the US has still not fully restored Starlink service to Ukraine, with speeds reportedly capped at 161 kilometres per hour, down from an upper limit in the 200s. This is seen by Ukrainian officials as a blackmail play to force Ukraine to stop hitting the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s oil industry.
In London, British journalists jeered the US Defense Secretary with cries of “Putin’s puppet” over the Starshield shutdown. US President Donald Trump is reportedly on a pro-Russian media tour, repeating Kremlin claims that Ukraine sold US-provided missiles and spinning stories about Tomahawks that Ukraine never received. Ukrainian intelligence warns that the US intends to lift many of the biggest sanctions on Russia.
Europe is drawing its own conclusions. Even Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, once known for pro-Russian sentiment, has criticised Trump for his pro-Russian stance, stating that by making a deal with Putin he has betrayed Europe. European governments are moving to cut further cooperation with Musk’s SpaceX and fast-track their own satellite systems.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reminded Ukrainians that they have friends who can be counted on in difficult times. New data shows which countries support Ukraine relative to their economies, with Denmark (3.49 percent of GDP), Estonia (3.07 percent), and Norway (2.83 percent) among the top contributors.
Bulgaria has formally asked NATO for reinforcements after drone attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea. In France, the presidential race remains wide open, with Marine Le Pen stating she is ready to travel to Kyiv to inform President Zelenskyy of her intention to cut aid to Ukraine.
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