(KYIV, UKRAINE) – A potential deal to allow Russian diesel into the United States would deliver limited relief at the pump while handing Moscow close to $7 billion in extra revenue, according to Matthew Savoski, director of quantitative research at the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Savoski said the move is driven by politics rather than economics. The US president wants to create the impression that he is working to lower fuel prices and that he is doing everything possible to that end, and it appears not to matter whether the plan actually works. He simply wants people to see that he is taking action, Savoski told Ukrinform.
Russia already exports almost all the diesel it produces. To raise shipments significantly, it would need to roughly double its export capacity, while Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refineries, making any increase in output harder.
In Savoski’s view, Russia is unlikely to supply the US market with meaningful additional volumes. Instead it would redirect existing cargoes from other buyers, including Brazil and Turkey, which would also mean higher transport costs. The United States is itself a diesel exporter.
Even under an optimistic scenario, higher Russian shipments could cover about 8% of the global diesel shortfall in October and November, a share that could rise to 14% to 15% over time. The effect on US prices would remain limited, with a potential reduction of about 20 cents against an earlier increase of roughly $2.80.
Savoski estimates the potential deal could bring Russia almost $7 billion in additional revenue. About $500 million of that could ultimately reach the Russian military budget, roughly the cost to Russia of one day of war against Ukraine or about 14,000 Shahed type drones.
Savoski said Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are justified because they weaken Russia’s ability to wage war. He added that US policy could shift with the political cycle and that relations between Washington and Kyiv could improve after the midterm congressional elections on 3rd November.
The former head of the Pentagon has said a deal on Russian diesel could help President Vladimir Putin continue the war.
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