(KYIV) – Washington has once again sided with the aggressor rather than the victim, according to retired General Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe.
Relations between the Trump administration and Kyiv have plummeted to their lowest point since the infamous Oval Office meeting in early 2024.
Speaking on Ukraine This Week, General Hodges said the White House has given away its leverage over Ukraine through a series of damaging decisions.
These include a diesel deal with the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, the suspension of intelligence sharing, and speed limitations imposed on Starlink terminals used by Ukrainian forces.
The US president unilaterally announced an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv on Monday, catching Ukraine off guard.
Kyiv honoured the ceasefire for three days, while Russia did not.
For two days following, Ukraine received no advance warnings from the United States of incoming ballistic attacks.
Starlink terminals were then hit with sudden speed limits, disrupting military operations from the mid-strike campaign to intercepting Russian jet-powered drones.
A Ukrainian official described the situation as very unpleasant, stating: “We were unable to use a tool to protect the civilian population.”
The decision was reportedly made by the Trump administration because the affected terminals were using Star Shield, the military version of Elon Musk’s Starlink controlled by the Pentagon.
An analyst suggested it appeared to be punishment for Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not being sufficiently responsive to President Trump’s demands.
On Friday, the US president called his Ukrainian counterpart “not a good guy” and “the only obstacle to peace in Ukraine” while reviving economic ties with Russia through a diesel deal and easing sanctions on oil.
President Zelenskyy described the decision as weak, warning: “We cannot accept diesel deals because gas agreements will follow. I am absolutely certain of that.”
He added: “Sanctions on gas and other resources will be lifted and eventually it will all come down to the banking system and specific individuals.”
The deal has become another source of frustration for Ukrainians.
One resident said: “They are playing their political games. The US, I mean, what are they gambling with? Our lives, people’s nerves. People are constantly shaken and living in fear.”
Kyiv has hit back, with President Zelenskyy declaring the energy ceasefire off the table.
Ukrainian forces struck the Yandex data centre and a warehouse, a Russian oil refinery in Ryazan, and a gas processing plant in Saratov.
Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles destroyed four Su-34 bombers, aircraft Russia uses to drop heavy glide bombs on Ukrainian cities from beyond the reach of air defences.
A military analyst noted: “Russia is very vulnerable for these kinds of weapons. The more weapons Ukraine has like this, the easier will be the problem with Russian ballistics or Russian gliding bombs.”
Ukraine’s Third Army Corps says it has pushed Russian forces out of 101 square kilometres of land near Lyman as Operation Vivaldi concluded its fourth phase.
According to the corps, the operation has foiled Moscow’s plans to surround Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two cities at the heart of the Donbas fortress belt.
The human cost continued to mount this week.
Russian forces launched a brutal attack on a market in Kharkiv during rush hour, killing at least two people.
A survivor recalled: “It happened so suddenly without any sound. Something raised my leg and hurt so much, then something slammed into my arm.”
A Russian drone also hit a wholesale store during a massive attack in Kharkiv, killing six people.
Throughout the week, Moscow kept escalating strikes on civilians, aiming to destroy Ukraine’s energy system before winter sets in.
At the Warsaw Security Forum, NATO commander General Alexus Grynkewich unveiled a theory of victory in response to threats of Russian aggression against NATO.
The plan would block an attack at the border and, if necessary, break enemy forces and systems behind them using drones and AI-enabled targeting and deep strikes.
While the speech was praised for publicly stating a plan to defeat an act of armed aggression rather than simply deterring one, there were sharp criticisms.
The reaction would rely heavily on US troops while Washington eyes reducing forces in Europe. Doubts are also growing over US commitment.
The plan also failed to address grey zone threats such as sabotage and cyber attacks, or other acts falling just below the threshold of armed aggression.
General Hodges said: “Unfortunately, it doesn’t really have anything to do with Ukraine except that NATO would be defending against a Russian attack if Ukraine fails.”
He added: “The part that was missing for me was that if there is going to be a theory of victory, it should include a theory of defeat of Russia.”
He noted the theory presumes unlimited logistics and perfect intelligence, neither of which exists.
He said the forum was the biggest and most sophisticated yet, but a cloud hung over it because of negative US actions regarding intelligence and early warning for Ukraine, as well as the diesel deal.
“These things really cast a dark shadow over the forum,” he said.
On what President Zelenskyy should do now, General Hodges was blunt: “He has nothing to give to Washington. Ukraine is fighting for its own survival.”
He noted that Ukraine’s attacks against Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure have been very effective, which is why the Kremlin has turned to the US president to increase pressure on Ukraine to stop.
He said the US administration has given away its leverage over Ukraine.
“I do not think Ukraine is going to believe anymore that this US administration, unfortunately, is going to be the source of much help,” he said.
“This is where Europe really has to step up its support for Ukraine because European countries are going to pay the consequences if Ukraine fails.”
Regarding what Ukraine cannot afford to lose from Washington, General Hodges addressed the suspension of early warning for ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv.
He dismissed suggestions that weather prevented the US from providing warnings.
“The United States has amazing capabilities for surveillance. I seriously doubt it was cloud cover that prevented this from happening,” he said.
“I think it was a decision by somebody somewhere between the Pentagon and the White House.”
He estimated that 50 to 67 percent of intelligence Ukraine receives comes from sources other than the United States, primarily European countries.
“If Ukraine fails, the consequences will be dealt with by European countries. It is in their best interest that they help provide that early warning,” he said.
“There is no more time to sit around and think about this.”
Turning to the Lindsey Graham sanctions package, General Hodges expressed sadness that the US Congress is “totally awol.”
He said: “They were so proud and happy that they had passed this sanctions package with Senator Graham’s name on it.”
“And here the president of the United States, Senator Graham was not even cold in his grave, and the president immediately makes a deal with Russia that would involve lifting sanctions, the opposite of what the Graham bill was supposed to do.”
He described this as further evidence that the administration “has completely sided with the Kremlin.”
He said this was something he never imagined would happen with a Republican administration “siding with Russia instead of democratic countries fighting for their survival.”
He expressed hope that Congress will “rediscover their backbone soon,” noting that midterm elections are less than three weeks away.
On whether Democrats could use foreign policy to secure a better deal for Ukraine, General Hodges said it would be helpful if the House and Senate worked together to reestablish American support for Ukraine.
He was heartened by Republican members of Congress at the Warsaw forum who expressed support for Ukraine and NATO.
“Let us see them produce, deliver on that, follow through on what they say when they are talking to President Zelenskyy,” he said.
“It is possible. But it comes down to whether they are willing to challenge the president.”
He noted that foreign policy seldom plays a critical role in US elections, but there has been a huge increase in people who see corruption in the administration as a key issue.
“I have never seen it at that level before,” he said.
“People are trying to understand how in the world can the president of the United States make a deal with Russia about diesel when it is not going to change the price of diesel at the pump by one cent.”
On Russian drones sinking merchant ships in Romania’s and Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zones, General Hodges said NATO, the EU, and individual nations allowed this situation by not responding earlier.
Drones have landed inside countries such as Romania, Poland, and Germany.
“Because we have not acted, it has created more space and the Russians are going to fill that space with continued hybrid attacks like the ones you just described,” he said.
He noted that when a vessel is attacked and citizens of a NATO country are killed, that is a different consideration.
For ships not flagged by NATO or EU countries, there will be less willingness to take decisive action.
“All of these things have to be taken together as Russia’s violations of international law, violations of sovereignty,” he said.
“Clearly they are willing to take more risks. They see that we are not acting with any decisive steps and I think they are going to keep doing this.”
He warned: “We will see more ships get hit like this in the coming days.”
On whether ships travelling within territorial waters would change the situation, General Hodges said it is not a technical detail, but Russia is demonstrating a willingness to take more risks.
He noted drones have reached Leipzig airport in Germany.
“What they are trying to do is break the will of Europe to support Ukraine but also to damage Ukraine’s export of grain,” he said.
“Unless we figure out how to inflict real consequences on them, I think this is going to continue.”
On Operation Vivaldi, General Hodges said the operation has demonstrated that manoeuvre warfare on land is still possible despite the enormous number of drones in the air.
“The Ukrainians have figured out how to conduct what we used to call combined arms warfare,” he said.
“They are using drones and their own electronic warfare to protect their ground formations while countering Russian drones. They have done it with great operational security without advertising it.”
He said it would be very difficult for Russia to pour a whole bunch more troops into the land fight and achieve its ultimate goal.
“If they do get 300,000 or 400,000 more troops, that means probably 300,000 or 400,000 more casualties,” he said.
“I just do not think that is what would make the difference for Russia against Ukraine.”
On how Ukraine can keep inflicting heavy losses while keeping its forces relatively safer, General Hodges said Ukraine has demonstrated a talent for learning, adapting, and adjusting.
“Even though this has been and still is a successful operation, they will have learned a lot from it,” he said.
He stressed that the decisive part is Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure.
“The Kremlin does not care how many casualties they have. They do not give a toss about that,” he said.
“But the more damage that can be done to Russia’s ability to export oil and gas, the more difficult it will be for Russia to continue this war effort.”
He added: “Not because Russians are unhappy about sitting in a queue for hours to get fuel, but because of the lost revenues from the sale of oil and gas. That is where it becomes increasingly difficult for Russia to pay for the war.”
He also noted the effective strikes on Yandex data centres and their impact on Russian disinformation efforts.
On winter preparations, General Hodges said air and missile defence is not only about Patriot interceptors.
“The whole world knows that we do not have enough to stop all the incoming Russian missiles,” he said.
“However, so much of the damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure is done by these Shahed jet-powered drones, not just Iskander missiles.”
He said European countries have capabilities they could be providing or investing in Ukraine’s own efforts to develop ballistic missile defence and counter-drone capabilities.
“It is not just wringing your hands about wishing the US would give more Patriots. There are other things European countries could be doing,” he said.
“This is about protecting European citizens, the Ukrainians, who are getting attacked.”
He added: “More and more European countries led by Germany are recognising that they have a responsibility to do this and I hope that they will.”
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